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Initially, the former US president gave the impression to take a strong stance on the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering threats of "significant consequences" last August if Putin continued obstructing truce discussions, the former president ultimately enacted considerable sanctions on Russia's two largest petroleum corporations, these major energy companies. This action significantly affected the Russian leader's ability to support his military invasion in Ukraine.

But, with his newly presented detailed peace proposal for Ukraine, that was created by American and Russian diplomats without Ukrainian or EU involvement, Trump has clearly gone back to his favorable to Russia approach.

Favoring Military Action

Trump's initiative would effectively reward Putin for invading a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's democratic system in jeopardy. Although bold statements that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be upheld", large portions of the plan effectively weaken that same autonomy. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate background, the former president seems to treat the war as a basic border issue, like giving Putin a portion of Ukrainian land will appease the leader. Yet, Putin's invasion is not merely about controlling a charred region of industrial-devastated land in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about the nation's democracy – and Putin's clear intention to eliminate it so it stops acts as an attractive model for the Russian citizens of the accountable governance that his growing autocracy prevents them.

Land Concessions

Although freezing in status the already separated oblasts of these areas, Trump's proposal would compel Ukraine to give up the entire Donetsk region. Aside from favoring the Russian Federation with area that its troops have been failed to seize in over a ten years of conflict, this giveaway would leave Ukraine's defensive positions critically compromised.

This region is the place of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the entrenched protective structures that are a essential barrier to invading forces. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these positions, giving Putin a clear path to Kyiv in case he eventually choose to restart the conflict.

Military Reductions

Additionally, in a move that would enable future conflict easier for Russia, Trump would require Ukraine to cut the size of its armed forces from their present 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a limit of this lower number. Notably, the proposal sets no such limits on Russia's military.

In what appears as a gesture to Russia's efforts to characterize the nation's democratically elected government as radicals, Trump's proposal declares: "Every extremist doctrine and practices must be opposed and forbidden." As if to underscore this element, it requires that "Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, the proposal places no condition that Putin risk his dictatorship by holding democratic processes in Russia.

Security Commitments

To be sure, the plan has the Russian Federation commit not to "attack bordering nations" and to "enshrine in law its stance of non-violence towards the EU and Ukraine". However given that the Russian leadership has violated equivalent treaties in the history – for example the Budapest accord, in which Russia promised to recognize the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for giving up its former Soviet atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Moscow agreed to a halt in fighting and a handback of captured territory in the Donbas to the government – for what reason should the international community trust Russia on this occasion?

That is why Ukraine has been so determined on external protection assurances. Although the plan warns of a "strong unified armed reaction" should Russia restart its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive strong security guarantees", the particulars vary from vague to troubling. The initiative would not just deny Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude Nato members from stationing forces on the nation's land, thereby precluding the reassurance force, reportedly headed by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Russia from replenishing his weakened troops, restocking, and reinvading.

International Reaction

A separate side agreement apparently would provide Ukraine with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any later "serious, intentional, and continuous armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an attack threatening the tranquility of the transatlantic community." That suggests a armed reaction. However unlike a powerful national defense – the nation's most reliable deterrent against renewed hostilities – the credibility of the parallel accord would hinge on the commitment of Western powers, like the US administration, to react through arms to Russia's hostilities, something they have {not