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It was two months ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager admonished him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his performances were a symptom or the reason for the team's broader struggles.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. After Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team continued to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six games, now sit just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?

That’s a particularly tough question to resolve. Past precedent, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, while the victories have accumulated.

As per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team registered an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a team which has strung together 10 in a row, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – but currently the margins are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to save the day with two precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.

His opener came from a superb shot, arced right inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Can It Last?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more shots and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.

Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Could it be a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still find their top level.

• The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.

This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned the young forward now would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.

The current run is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. When Rogers faced the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.