Is the Entertainment Fading? The Fall of the Goal Scoring

Football match action
The Wolves squad managed 10 fewer goals from open-play situations than this point the previous campaign.

A major talking point of England's top flight season so far concerns the reduction of scoring in open-play scenarios and how sides have been scoring increasingly from set-plays as an alternative.

Comparing goal sources to the first 11 games the prior season, there have been 39 fewer scored in open-play and 26 more from team set-pieces and penalties, leading to 13 fewer in total.

If we look at overall statistics, shot attempts teams are taking show a remarkable 370 fewer in open-play than this time last time out.

And despite the big increase in dead-ball scores, we've actually seen only two additional shots created from them outside of penalties, indicating the proficiency sides have been at finding ways to score from dead-ball chances.

Goal Averages Reveal an Interesting Narrative

The 301 goals recorded in 110 matches to date averages out at nearly 2.75 goals per game, if this persists for the whole season would be the least for half a decade, from five seasons ago (2.69 average).

However, only 196 goals scored in open play equates to 1.78 each match and is on course to be the least for 16 years, from 16 years ago (1.76).

2009-10 also marks the sole English top-flight season to witness goals scored more frequently from non-penalty set-pieces than this season's rate of 0.77 each match (0.79 average).

What Clubs Are Most Responsible?

Regarding goals scored from open-play, Wolves have seen the largest decline, netting only four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 fewer than at this stage the previous campaign.

Apart from Wolverhampton, England's top division's fall in open play goals is largely a trend among London clubs, with five of the London's seven clubs recording a minimum of five less scores from open play than the previous year.

To be fair, that's largely down to their scoring many scores at the early stages of the previous campaign instead of them really struggling to find the net in open-play this campaign.

At the same time City have seen the most significant jump, with nearly all of the 23 they've scored to date coming in open-play.

Set-Play Proficiency

Looking at the promoted teams with the teams that went down that they superseded. Play-off champions the Black Cats have netted an additional three scores in open-play than Southampton achieved in their first 11 games leading to the drop last season.

Regarding scoring from dead-ball situations (not counting penalties), the Gunners and Chelsea have experienced the biggest increase, with both sides compensating for the five fewer goals that they've netted in open-play with the same number from dead-ball situations.

Man United have scored twice as many goals from set-pieces as they achieved in matchday 11 the previous campaign before their coach assumed control, while Sunderland once more are more effective at netting than the fellow red-and-whites they replaced.

Manchester City don't seem to have got the message about scoring more from set-pieces, since they've recorded three less than the previous campaign, like Nottingham Forest, even if this may result from the tactical shift they're working to install.

General Tendencies

Six clubs – the Gunners, Chelsea, Fulham, Newcastle, Tottenham and West Ham – have been this season's top trend-setters by netting less scores from open-play and increased from set-pieces, while Manchester City are the only side to go against the grain up to now by doing the contrary.

It remains to be seen to observe if sides carry on to place such emphasis on set-plays as the campaign progresses or if they find again their overall inventiveness and start converting more goals in open play also.

Andrew Diaz
Andrew Diaz

A seasoned gaming analyst with over a decade of experience in casino operations and strategy development.

Popular Post